Addison:
Hi, and welcome to The Wiggin Sessions. I'm your host Addison Wiggin. Today, we have our
science advisor, Ray
Blanco. He's joining us once again. Welcome, Ray. It's good to see you.
Ray:
Great to be here, Addison. Always a pleasure doing these sessions with you.
Addison:
How's it going down there? You're in Florida, right?
Ray:
Well, it's hot, it's muggy, and we've had a lot of rain the last few days. Good for the mosquitoes.
Not so good for
us, yeah.
Addison:
Let's get started. I want to do a quick overview or catch up with you on the pandemic itself.
Since we last
talked, we've had the emergence of the Delta variant, kids have gone back to school and there's
been a debate
about whether they should be wearing a mask is a big freaking political nightmare all over
again. Whether they
work or not doesn't seem to really matter. And then also, we have new mandates from the
president just this past
week about... Or at least proposals. It hasn't been passed yet. But companies under over 100
employees will have
to get the vaccine or get tested regularly. So I want to get your idea or your reaction to a
presidential
mandate, which sounds insane to me in a democracy. Wait, one more thing. Ivermectin keeps
popping up in these
podcasts and things that I listen to and stuff that I read. I want to get your opinion on
ivermectin. So let's
get started. Just why don't you bring me up to date on your views on the Delta variant and the
possibility of
another winter surge in the virus.
Ray:
All right. The United States is a huge country. Things can be very different from one place to
the next.
Florida's
been in the news over the last month or two. We had a really bad surge with Delta taking over.
That seems to be
firmly in the rear view. I'm looking right now at our seven day moving average. We peaked here a
good three
weeks
ago. We plateaued and our case has been falling. Nationally, the cases have been falling. Kind
of weird because
we
didn't see this kind of a peak in a lot of Northern states like we've seen in Florida. It's been
a Southeastern
phenomenon, although cases have ticked up elsewhere.
Are we over Delta? I think it depends, to a large extent, on where you live. Here in Florida,
like I told you,
it's
hot, it's muggy, it's rainy. The way you guys live in winter up North, we live like that in
summer down here. We
tend to stay indoors where it's air conditioned and comfortable. That might have something to do
with the fact
that
states like mine have seen a lot more COVID-19 over the last couple of months than some of the
Northern states
have.
Again, not a certainty, but a very strong possibility.
So it's possible that states like mine have peaked, but other states up North in the Northeast
where it gets
colder
now, it's going to start getting cooler, people will start going indoors more. We might see an
uptick there.
None of
this is for certain. Yogi Berra once said, predicting is really hard, especially about the
future. So I'm
cautiously
optimistic that we've peaked on a national level, but we could still see some regional flare ups
and especially
in
areas that haven't gotten hit that hard. We've had parts of the world that didn't get hit that
hard in previous
waves, and now they're getting slammed. Southeast Asia is really having a hard time dealing with
the Delta
variant.
Cases are just going through the moon there. Nationally, I think the peak is behind us, but we
still could see
some
parts of the country where you'll see cases accelerate.
Addison:
Yeah, it seems like we've entered into this holding pattern where everyone's just used to the
pandemic and
they're just dealing with mask mandates and the kind of level. At least here in Maryland, people
have just
developed a routine that deals with the pandemic. It seems like a forever pandemic. Do you see
any new variants?
We heard about the MU variant, the variant that was in England a couple of weeks ago.
Ray:
So that was first identified in Colombia. I think nationally, it's about 1% of cases, if that. They
say it may have
some escape mechanisms from our current batch of vaccines. Honestly, it doesn't look that bad yet.
It's a variant of
interest, not of concern. It's still wait-and-see mode about whether we're going to get another wave
of MU. I feel
like we're not, I feel like Delta, once it's done tearing through the system, it may be the last big
wave. We'll
see. But that doesn't mean we're rid of this thing. We're probably going to have to live with it
like we live with
the flu every year. It's going to be endemic. There's going to be new variants every year. It's
going to be a dull
roar, rather than this acute situation.
Addison:
Yeah. We've learned how to deal with the flu. It seems to me that you should be able to move
into life as
normal and just deal with the coronavirus as we do with other things. So let's talk about the
mandate to get
vaccines, or even a mask mandate. Those are two political hot buttons. Personally, I'm
vaccinated, my wife is
vaccinated, my kids are vaccinated. We made that choice on our own and I do think that it should
be a personal
choice. It should be up to the family to decide. It shouldn't be mandated by counties, states,
or the federal
government. And yet, here we go. It's like a power grab for the federal government to mandate
what people do
with their own health choices. That seems very reckless. Especially if the legislature in the
federal government
or in each of the states goes along with it, that's a very dangerous trend in my view.
Ray:
Well, I live in the wonderful state of Florida, one more time. A lot of the stuff we thought was real
and true hasn't
held up to the cold, hard light of reality. So for example, I interviewed Peter Chai out of the
University of
Tennessee, the inventor of the N-95 mask. And he showed solid laboratory data of how well the N-95
blocked these
airborne particles that could carry the virus, aerosols and so on. He also showed how an ordinary
surgical or cloth
mask, not as good as an N-95, but it does block X percentage, which, it's a numbers game. So that's
the lab. And
then there's the real world where we're all walking around, interacting, touching our masks, moving
them around.
There's air gaps everywhere. You're touching your face. You're putting it on, you're taking it off.
And there's been
real world studies showing it doesn't make much of a difference.
Addison:
I like this scenario. We went out to lunch yesterday and we were walking on the street, no
masks. And there's
no outdoor mask mandate in Maryland, but there is an indoor mask mandate. So we put the mask on,
walked through
the door, and then we sat down at the table that's right next to the door and then took our
masks off. They
won't let you get in the door unless you put the mask on. But as soon as you're inside, you take
the mask off.
It doesn't seem to make much difference at all.
Ray:
The arbitrariness of things invites a total disrespect for our institutions, authority, the law,
and all this
kind of
stuff. It's been a real problem. It's been extremely politicized. And then we've got the mandate
that you
mentioned.
It's really politicized this issue. I don't think it's going to be very helpful. If the
President's goal is to
get
more people vaccinated, this is just going to harden opposition to vaccination. Americans,
constitutionally, we
don't like being told what to do. We've got a certain conception of our... We're an
individualistic society. We
talk
about our declaration and our constitution and how our institutions are supposed to protect our
liberties. And
here,
you've got the chief executive of the federal government saying he's very disappointed in you.
Hey, it doesn't
work
that way, buddy. It's not for you to be disappointed in the people. You work for us. We're the
ones that can be
disappointed in you if we don't like the job you're doing.
So the mandate, I think, is going to be very counterproductive of... The lawsuits are going to
fly. First of all,
this is not going to happen right away. OSHA's got to draft, because he's using OSHA to do this.
OSHA's got to
draft
this. The rule doesn't make a whole lot of sense the way he said it. If you have more than 100
employees... I
work
from home. I'm endangering nobody. What if I have natural immunity? My daughter caught COVID a
month and a half
ago.
What if I've been exposed and I have natural immunity, and I can prove that? Why should I have
to be vaccinated?
And
things like that.
Addison:
Yeah. I was thinking about that too. We live in an information economy. Everyone's been
working from home for
almost two years now. How are you going to do check ups on people that are working remotely? A
lot of people
moved out of the cities and they're living in the country suburbs and they don't ever intend to
go back into the
office, but they might work for a corporation that has a couple thousand people. It's a dumb
idea.
Ray:
Last week we took my nine month old son for his checkup and everything. And the nurse
practitioner, who's been
the
person that sees him and my daughter, who's three years old, she's been our family doctor for
years now, she
says,
next time, she might not be there because she is very against taking one of these mRNA vaccines.
She doesn't
want to
take it, and she's willing to quit. What's going to happen if you've got a lot of people that
just... Even 10,
20%
of people. I just read an article today. There's a hospital in Texas where the CEO of the
hospital says he
thinks
20, 25% of the people are going to walk. He's going to have to shut the hospital down. And Biden
saying, "If you
don't comply, we're going to cut off your Medicare and Medicaid money," And this is a poor part
of Texas,
everybody's on it. It's going to create more problems than it solves.
I don't think it's going to push the vaccination numbers a lot higher over what would happen
otherwise. And it's
going to create a lot of resentment and anger. Maybe this is just a political ploy to distract
from the debacle
that
was the Afghanistan withdrawal. I don't know. It might be just a cynical political maneuver to
change the
conversation. But like I said, this thing can't be implemented for a while. Once the rule is
written, there's, I
think, 75 days before it actually goes into effect. As soon as it's written, they're going to
sue the pants off
of
it. So who knows how long this thing gets held up in court.
By the time this thing gets resolved one way or the other, I think Delta's going to be firmly in
the rear view,
and
we may be back to where we were at the beginning of the summer where we just have a trickle of
cases and steady
declines. And the vaccines have been imperfect, unfortunately. We had really high hopes for it.
The protection
is
far from perfect. One good thing you can say about it, it does appear to be protective against
severe cases of
COVID. So there's definitely that in its favor. But a lot of people just constitutionally,
they're just... When
you
tell them, "You gotta do it-"
Addison:
I would put myself in that camp. Like I said, I took the vaccine, my family, we got them all
vaccinated. My
wife's probably the most likely to be in a high risk category, given her own health history. But
that wasn't
really the reason. We take vaccines for all kinds of things, whatever. Tetanus, I stepped on a
piece of glass a
couple of months ago. We take medicine for all kinds of things and we take it in the arm for all
kinds of
things. So I'm not really opposed to the vaccine itself. But having any kind of government
control, it's a
personal decision. You can't tell me whether I put something in my arm or not. I think there's a
lot of people
that are in that camp.
Addison:
Okay. Let's talk about the changes in your franchise. We're talking to reserve members, so
we've made a few
changes in the past couple of weeks. If you want to just give us a rundown, they'll hear it from
the horse's
mouth, no pun intended.
Ray:
We're closing out a couple of services. Breakthrough Technology Alert, which I've had
the privilege to
be a
part of going back to 2009, and FDA Profit Alert. We're closing those out just to start
fresh. Right
now
I'm still the editor of Catalyst Trader and all of our best ideas are going to go
there. Our FDA
service,
it was a lot of catalyst trades based on clinical data, regulatory timelines, those ideas are
going to be going
in
the Catalyst Trader. Our reserve members are still going to get my best ideas.
My best micro, small-cap, moonshot-type of tech and biotech place, that would've been in
Breakthrough
Technology
Alert, the best ones are going to be going in the Catalyst Trader. I'm already
talking with
you
guys. Hopefully we can launch some new product here in the not-too-distant future, give me some
more stuff to
work
with, which I would definitely enjoy. We're in a little bit of a transition, but you'll still be
hearing a lot
from
me here in the coming weeks and months.
Addison:
Okay. That's good. I'm actually a part of it. I think it's a good way forward because we get
to go back to
the drawing board and reinvent some of the approaches that we take to bioscience and technology.
One of them
that you had in your portfolio that you sold, I think you sold it maybe in July, was a company
called Cybin. You
had some interesting anecdotes about Cybin when we were talking right before we got on here.
It's an interesting
company and I've been in touch with the CEO, his name, Doug Drysdale, and I'm speaking again
with him for a
Wiggin session next week. Maybe give a little bit of background on Cybin and there's some
developments there
that you were talking about, in conjunction with Johns Hopkins here in Baltimore.
Ray:
Yeah. Cybin is one of these new psychedelic therapeutic companies and there's a few ones out
there. Quality
companies
like Compass, Mindmed and Cybin. These are powerful drugs. People take them recreationally and
they have the
psychedelic experience, they can be hallucinatory, they can be revelatory. On a biochemical
level, these
compounds
act like they can reboot your brain. Why will we care about that? Well, they could be powerful
therapeutic tools
for
stuff that we can't treat right now, like treatment-resistant depression, addiction,
post-traumatic stress
disorder
and things like that. They could be very useful. They have already helped a lot of people under
controlled
circumstances and trials. What I like about Cybin and I think Cybin is special, unlike the other
two companies
that
I've mentioned.
These other companies are largely working with existing compounds. They're doing
psilocybin-assisted therapy. and
as
you know psilocybin is the main active psychoactive compound in the psilocybin mushroom, the
magic mushroom.
Cybin
is developing a library of synthetic psychedelic substances with different properties. The
company's lead
program is
psilocybin lead program, but the delivery method is unique. They have a sublingual, I think it's
like a thin
film
sublingual delivery instead of oral ingestion, which is bit problematic with psilocybin because
the amount of
time
for it to kick in is quite variable and the amount that you actually absorb through your
digestive system can
also
be variable. Obviously when you're giving a prescription, you want to know that something works
very
consistently.
Their sublingual formulation psilocybin, quicker uptake, avoid second pass metabolism, it's a
more consistent
delivery method than orally, but that's not what I'm most excited about.
Like I said, they're building a library of synthetic psychedelics with different properties.
Let's say there's a
case
for a psychedelic compound that has a very mild effect, but a very long duration, for a certain
type of therapy,
for
some sort of mental illness. Well, they're working on stuff like that. They're working on
deuterated versions of
psychedelics, which have delivery properties and half life in the body. What if you want
something that's
fast-acting, works really quick and goes away quickly? You're working on psychedelics that do
that and
psychedelics
with different kinds of subjective, mental state properties and different interactions with your
neurotransmitters.
Maybe they bind more tightly to one neurotransmitter and more weakly to another.
The nice thing about this, from a commercial perspective, companies like Mindmed and Compass, can
patent the
actual
application of psilocybin and they are and there's an uproar about that by the way, but they
can't patent the
actual
compound itself, the molecule because they didn't invent it, it's been out forever. We
discovered it back in the
'50s when they were able to extract it from the psilocybin mushroom, but Cybin, with these
compounds, does not
have
that problem. They're patenting left and right, these compounds because they're inventing them
and they're
building
a library of them for future clinical study and they actually have compositional matter patents,
which really
strengthens their position a great deal.
Addison:
You were saying that, having followed The Grateful Dead myself, when I think of psilocybin, I
think of a
different kind of use, a more recreational use. I think probably that's what jumps to people's
mind whenever you
talk about magic mushrooms or that kind of thing, but this is a serious business and the chief
science officer
came from Johns Hopkins to run the experiments, at Cybin. It's an important development in the
field.
Ray:
Top shelf scientific pedigree. As you know, depression's a huge problem. That's an obvious
application here and with
COVID 19 related depression, it's just getting bigger and bigger, which is something I can get into
a little bit in
a few minutes if you want.
Addison:
Yeah. Actually, I'm interested in that because we opened up talking about the pandemic and
the impact that's
happening. I think everyone is aware that depression and loneliness and people stuck in
apartments in cities and
stuff like that, but they've been going through a tough time. I get around a lot just because I
live in a less
populated area and I'm probably more fortunate than a lot of people, but I can't imagine having
spent 18 months
or more isolated from people that you love and that kind of thing. It's got to be really hard
for some
people.
Ray:
Yeah. We're not wired that way. We're social animals. Seeing somebody on a screen is a very poor
substitute with a
personal presence. I really do feel bad for people who live in the cities, in small apartments.
Maybe single people,
I think they're probably getting particularly hit hard by this. Really difficult situation.
Addison:
Okay. Let's move on. I have a number of companies that I want to talk to you about. You're
looking into
battery energy storage systems. I'd like to get an update on AppleFi; we've been talking about
that for a couple
years.
Ray:
Absolutely.
Addison:
The Metaverse, I'd like you to jump into that and explain that and then also your latest
issue covers Joby
Aviation, which I just think is, I don't know, space age for me, but I think it's probably
somewhere in the
future and even the market opportunities that you identified in your latest issue, it looks like
it's a viable
business and you seemed excited about it. Let's start off with the battery storage. Elon Musk is
behind an
operation down in the desert in Texas.
Ray:
Elon Musk, with his giga factories, is really pushing to scale up lithium battery production and the
greater the
scale, the lower the price, which is great for his cars and a lot of other people are working on
that, but there's
another application which is grid storage. There's a big push to green, I'm not going to make an
argument for or
against the whole global warming situation, but the energy economy is definitely moving in this
direction. People
want renewables, they want solar, they want wind.
Addison:
They want nuclear power too.
Ray:
Yes.
Addison:
I don't know if you noticed, uranium stocks have been skyrocketing.
Ray:
They're going through the moon. We're not going to be able to do this without nuclear energy. Put
that to one
side.
We should be going crazy developing-next generation nuclear technology. There are some really
interesting new
technologies out there, like the small modular reactor technology being developed by
NuScale.
Here
in a couple of years they're going to start building one in Idaho or Utah. Going back to
renewables and best
battery
energy storage systems. You got solar, you got wind. When the sun isn't shining and the wind
isn't blowing,
you've
got a little bit of a problem with these renewables. You're not generating what you might need,
which is why you
need a base load. If you want to be clean, nuclear is the cleanest and it's cleaner than solar
and it's cleaner
than
wind in terms of how many units of carbon you add to the atmosphere, per unit of energy that you
output. Put
that to
one side, the way you deal with this is that when there's lots of sun, there's lots of wind,
more than you need
for
your grid, you put it, you store it in your piggy bank. All right? You store it in some sort of
energy storage
and
the battery is the biggest one. There are other ways of doing it, but battery grid-scale, giant
battery
technology
is the way they're doing this. So as we scale, and it's predicted we're going to scale big time
here over the
next
decade, in terms of renewables, there's a huge market opportunity for these battery energy
storage companies
like
Stem, which is working with lidium. Another company is working with zinc, which
is really
interesting. It's Eos Energy Enterprise (EOSE).
Stem is big. Okay? They've actually gotten more grid-scale batteries out there than Tesla right
now. And they got
lots of projects coming down the pipe. So they're growing by leaps and bounds. It's a great
play. Eos Energy
isn't
working with lithium, it's working with zinc battery technology. Not the kind of battery
technology that would
work
in your car. Okay? It's heavier. It's a little bit less energy dense, but for grid-scale, it has
some definite
advantages. It's less prone to catch on fire, which, if you're going to put some battery storage
at a data
center,
in an urban core, Manhattan or something like that, it's propensity to burn is a major
consideration under those
circumstances. Number two, I expect our lithium supply lines, supply chains will, I expect, be
strained for
years as
the electric automotive boom really gets into gear here.
So the nice thing about this is that you're not tapping into that supply chain for your energy
storage batteries.
And
zinc is cheap and plentiful. So there are some real advantages there also for them. So this is
going to be a
trillion dollar market here in 10 to 15 years. It's a couple of ways to play it. High-quality
companies are
growing
by leaps and bounds. Lots of opportunities there.
Addison:
All right, Apple-Fi. Give us an update.
Ray:
All right. So everybody was waiting with bated breath yesterday for the Apple announcement. And
it was a little
bit
of a sad trombone at the end. We got a slightly better iPhone and a bunch of new emojis, big
deal. So there was
a
report last month by Ming-Chi Kuo, who is the... you might call him the Apple whisperer. He's
got a bunch of
people
in the Apple supply chain talking to him. So he's a really good bellwether of what Apple might
be doing in the
future.
So they published in MacRumors and other Apple related websites that Apple was having QualComm
build them a
special
communications chip that was capable of communicating... I believe it's on the S band or L band.
I think S
bands.
Capable of communicating on S bands. "Why would you want to communicate on S band?" Well, hey,
there's these two
satellite constellations up there. Iridium and Globalstar. Maybe Apple's finally releasing
AppleFi, the
satellite
phone. Right? And these two companies... Iridium used to be in our portfolio. I sold them not
too long ago. I
kind
of kick myself, "Man, what if I did my research?" And I said, "These frequencies don't carry a
whole heck of a
lot
of data. We're not going to have a video call like this with this level of clarity on these
bands. Okay? I don't
find the rumor very plausible."
I thought to myself, "I think when Apple rolls out satellite phones, it's going to be just
mind-blowing. It's
going
to be amazing. It's not going to be this piddly bandwidth." And maybe you can make an emergency
call and I can
see
the utility in that, but that's not usually Apple's mode of operation. Apple usually goes really
big and they
really
perfect something before they release it to market. So I did not recommend Globalstar. Iridium
was out of our
portfolio. I didn't see how it would've worked with Iridium anyway, because the bandwidth in the
rumor, the
actual
band that supposedly was going to go into the new iPhone was not Iridium's anyway. It was
Globalstar's, though.
Turns out it was a big let down.
There's nothing in the iPhone that is satellite communications specific. They mentioned none of
that in their
presentation yesterday. A better chip, a better this, a better that, a much higher price for the
pro version,
the
iPhone 13 Pro. So we're going to have to wait on that, but it doesn't mean that it's not coming
down the pipe.
We've
got a company in Catalyst Trader called ASTS. They
seem to have
perfected a cell phone tower in the sky that will be able to bring 5G or 4G-like speeds to any
phone on the face
of
the earth, including your existing phone without any modification. Whether you have a Samsung,
an Apple,
whatever it
is, you'll be able to connect to that. And they've already signed deals with Sprint and
American
Tower in the United States. So don't quote me on that. I don't remember if it's
Sprint. It could be
Sprint. I think it's Sprint. So Sprint, once they get these satellites up in space, you will
have AppleFi to
your
Apple and to your non-Apple phone. So that's coming down the way, even if Apple isn't actually
building any
functionality into its phone.
Addison:
Well, that was kind of disappointing. When I was looking at them, I was like, "That was just
a scheduled
marketing ploy."
Ray:
Yeah.
Addison:
Really. I mean, it's almost like they're selling cameras instead of phones. Every time they
release a new
one, it's all about the lenses and... which is interesting in and of itself, but it's not a huge
improvement
over the 12. And it took me a long time. I had my 8 forever and I just got the 12
recently.
Ray:
I just got to 12. I finally went to Apple for the first time ever.
Addison:
Oh yeah?
Ray:
I had Samsung... What, 9 I think? Galaxy 9, S9 and cracked the screen. I said "All right. I'll switch
to Apple." My
wife's an Apple person all the way. So I switched to Apple. That said, Qualcomm is
supposedly, in a
couple years, their top end chip that's going to support this frequency band that could get you
satellite
communications with Globalstar and so on. So we'll see what happens with that.
Addison:
Tell me about the metaverse.
Ray:
The metaverse is an idea that we're working on right now. We don't have any published picks in
it, but if you
look at
our portfolio and Technology Profits Confidential, if you've bought some of those
plays, you already
owned
metaverse plays. So what is the metaverse? So the term is a sci-fi term. It comes from the
science fiction
author,
Neal Stephenson. He wrote Cryptonomicon, Snow Crash. Yeah, it actually comes
from Snow
Crash.
So metaverse is the new buzzword, it's the latest thing. We've actually been writing about the
metaverse for
years
without using that name. It just never caught on. So it's augmented reality, virtual reality,
virtual worlds.
We're
going to be living in these virtual worlds and we are, to a certain degree right now in the 2-D
fashion, you and
I
are having a virtual interview here even though we're a thousand miles away from each other. But
it's going to
go to
a much richer and deeper level of realism where you might be a virtual version of you, you might
be sitting here
in
my office, or I might be sitting there in your home. So it's something I've been writing about
specifically, at
least since 2015.
And it's coming along. The thing is the base technology to make it possible has to really get
better. Realism,
all
that stuff has to improve. Everybody's working on it. So Microsoft is the
portfolio. It's going
to
require massive graphics processing capabilities. We have Nvidia in the
portfolio. It's going
to
require the world's greatest chips. We've got Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's
greatest chip
maker
in the portfolio with their four nanometer process, which is what they use in the iPhones. And
we've got several
other companies. So there's the hardware side and there's the software side, and there's
different ways to play
it.
And Apple is supposed to be working on Apple Glasses where you'll have an augmented experience.
You've got
Microsoft
working on its Halo. I tested a developer version of Halo I'm going to say four years ago, five
years ago, maybe
four years ago. Blew me away. Okay? Absolutely blew me away. And it's only going to get better.
So they're
trying,
but they wanted something small. Remember, nobody wants to have a huge pair of goggles on their
head. Imagine
something like this, like your glasses.
Addison:
Walking around with binoculars, right?
Ray:
Yeah. A nice pair of Ray-Bans that you can put on and have this incredible experience. Imagine right
now, instead of
this one monitor you have in front of you, you could have four. You got three virtual monitors here
on your right,
okay? And they're just hovering in the air and they're as clear as the monitor you're looking at.
They're just in
your lenses. Things like that.
Addison:
Doesn't seem like it's far, far away. And I like this idea because it captures the
imagination. And once you
cross the tipping point where people accept it, they become fads really quickly. People love
gadgets.
Ray:
Oh and I predict.
Addison:
So positioned properly in the investments before that tipping point, you can pretty well,
very quickly.
Anybody that was in Apple before the first iPhone came out.
Ray:
Did very well.
Addison:
Yeah.
Ray:
So Apple's working on it, Microsoft, Google, so everybody knows it's coming. Everybody wants to be
their big time
when it finally hits.
Addison:
Yeah. Tell me about Joby Aviation. I was looking at some of the pictures of the flying taxi.
They're already
using them. I think they're still in beta testing, some of the different models, but Joby is
right on the
forefront of that.
Ray:
So Joby Aviation, there's a number of companies trying to do what they're doing.
I think they're
probably best of class. And certainly they're the only one that's listed on public markets right
now. It's
another
company called Blade, but they're working with helicopters. They do want to go to this
e-vertical takeoff for
landing, eVTOL model in the future. So Joby Aviation has developed a eVTOL electric vertical
takeoff for landing
aircraft. Very sleek, beautiful looking aircraft that carries four passengers and one pilot. Has
250 miles of
range,
extremely safe, but an incredible amount of redundancy built into this thing. It's got four
propellers, rotors,
propellers, whatever you want to call them. One of them can fail and the thing can still land
safely. Each motor
for
each propeller has two power converters. So one can fail and the other one will still work fine,
supplying all
the
electricity the electric propeller needs.
It's got four batteries built into it. One battery fails, you just make an emergency landing, or
you maybe even
have
still enough range to land at your destination. So they've really thought this through. The Air
Force loves what
they're doing. The Air Force has worked with them. It's already cleared to fly. The Air Force
has cleared it.
The
Air Force would love the short range vertical takeoff for landing craft for obvious reasons.
It's quite a
capability. I mean, remember everything, they invested in the Osprey for example. And Joby's
working with the
FAA to
get type certification so this thing can go into commercialization stage.
Addison:
Yes. The thing that kind of made it real for me is the lead to the article in the issue
describing a
development of homes that have hangers attached to them and people can taxi out.
Ray:
Yeah, we have that here.
Addison:
Yeah. So it just makes it more real to me. I'm thinking about flying taxis. I have a hard
time wrapping my
head around it, but there are already people that fly small planes and have them housed right at
their house.
It's just a short leap from that idea to having it more readily available. I do think that. I'm
curious to get
your opinion on it. When you learn how to drive, you get a license and you get it from the state
and... Cars are
dangerous. A lot of people get in accidents every year. Adding an element where people are
actually flying
around. It's like The Fifth Element, that Luc Besson sci-fi movie, which is one of my
favorites. What
has to happen in order for it to become adopted on a regular scale? People are still afraid of
packages being
delivered by drones.
Ray:
There's a number of pieces that need to fall into place. So they've got the basic plane. The
design is basically
frozen or almost frozen at this point. The craft itself has autonomous technology so that the
pilot of a
standard
airplane can get checked out on this thing and be able to fly without having to get some
separate certification.
If
you're an airplane pilot, your helicopter license is a completely different license. They're not
going to have
to do
that. The automation built into the plane will make it supposedly much safer than other kinds of
aircraft. Of
course, there's all this redundancy built in that I already mentioned. The other feature that
it's got going
forward
is as this technology evolves, maybe by 2030, which is what they've talked about, they'll be
able to have fully
autonomous aircraft. So imagine, we want to go to wine country. We land in San Francisco SFO, we
hop on a Joby
and
20 minutes later, we're in Napa without having to fight all that traffic. And the cost per mile
is actually
really
low. According to their numbers and their estimates, it's going to be super cheap. It's not
going to be as cheap
as
an Uber, but it's going to be cheap. And Uber actually is part of this whole thing. You're going
to be able to
call
one on your Uber app. Uber was working on air taxis and they sold all their air taxi technology
to Joby. So all
that
software stuff comes from Uber, which, I'd say they know how to do this kind of software.
They've done pretty
well
with what they've got.
They sold it to Joby, Uber's going to be part of this, and then you got to get the infrastructure
in place,
right?
Where are we going to take off? Where are we going to land? Air terminals, where are they going
to be? So
there's
the infrastructure side. The big thing right now is the FAA certification, which should be, I
think, maybe by
2023,
and then mass production, and then target markets. They want to come to Miami. Fly into Miami,
let's go to South
Beach. We're there in ten minutes, five minutes, real quick, because you're going 150, 200 miles
an hour. You're
flying over all that congestion. From the city planner perspective, it should help relieve a
little bit of
congestion for the troglodytes down below, you know what I mean? With people going up, like the
Jetsons, going
from
one place to the other, the Flintstones below, the Jetsons above. This iMobility thing is a big
investment
theme.
Joby's the only pure play right now. I think they're probably the most advanced company in terms
of getting to
market, and I think that introduces some scarcity into Joby stock, which I hope, over time, will
bid it up to
stratosphere heights, and then we can exit with a nice fat profit like we did with Virgin
Galactic.
Addison:
Yeah, it seems like this would be a good time to get in, where it's relatively unknown, and
then after a few
test flights and it makes it onto the news, and the headline that you used was Air Uber. As soon
as that hits
the headlines, I think Joby's going to do nicely. You told me that you were really excited about
a particular
company, and I cut you off beforehand because I wanted to reserve the excitement for this
interview, so let me
have it.
Ray:
All right. This one's mind blowing. So you mentioned you talked to, you said the CEO of Cybin and
he's from Johns
Hopkins. When it comes to psychedelics, Johns Hopkins is the premier research institute in the
United States.
Well,
as it just so happens, I spent several hours talking to a chief scientific officer of a
different company, and
he
was director of the ketamine research center at Johns Hopkins where they do this kind of
research, and he's
working
on something completely different. Man, where do I start with this? So his name is Adam Kaplan,
and the company
is
MYMD Pharmaceuticals Inc (MYMD) and they're now
in Catalyst Trader. If you want a little bit more color straight from the horse's
mouth, they presented
it
at HC Wainwright on Monday, and that webcast is still available if you want to look up the press
release.
But just to give my own rundown on it, and they've got a couple of compounds. I'm just going to
talk about MYMD
right
now. It's a tobacco alkaloid derivative. It's been modified in certain ways and it just so
happens to be a
powerful
TNF alpha inhibitor. Now, what does this mean? So, TNF alpha is one of these master inflammatory
cytokines that
you
have in the body, and the best selling, most successful drugs in history are TNF alpha blockers.
It did more
than
$20 billion in 2019 or 2020. $20 billion drug and it blocks TNF alpha. It actually was first
approved in 2002.
It
was the first antibody therapeutic approved by the FDA, and it blocks TNF alpha. It was approved
for rheumatoid
arthritis. TNF alpha is involved in all kinds of inflammatory autoimmune conditions.
The developers of Humira have been able to get approval after approval after
approval for
Crohn's
disease and this and that. $20 billion a year drug. And if you add the couple of others that
have come on the
market
since then, like Enbrel, actually, there's $40 billion a year in TNF alpha
blocker sales. It's
just
a mind blowing market. It's huge, but they all have the same problem. They work by blocking TNF
alpha directly,
and
that's very problematic because TNF alpha isn't there for nothing. When you get an infection or
an injury, your
TNF
alpha amps up to deal with that. It amps up the inflammatory response, it starts the cytokine
storm,
inflammatory
cascade, telling disease cells to kill themselves, so people that are on these TNF alpha
blockers, they're at
greater risk of certain kinds of cancer because there's an inflammatory component to that, and
they're at
greater
risk of infection, so it's a major downside.
The other downside for the TNF alpha blockers on the market now is that they don't cross the
blood brain barrier,
so
you've got all these inflammatory conditions like Alzheimer's, and there's a very, very strong
correlation
between
TNF alpha levels and depression, but none of these drugs cross the blood brain barrier to lower
your TNF alpha
levels and lower inflammation in your brain. Here comes MYMD1, the small molecule derived from a
tobacco
alkaloid
that crosses the blood brain barrier easily and lowers inflammation in those tissues. And it's
been studied, and
they're prepping it to, first of all, this drug has other properties.
They did a study on mice. It hasn't been published yet. The study was done at Johns Hopkins. They
had three
groups of
mice. They had one receiving MYMD one. They had one receiving rapamycin, which is a known life
extension drug,
and
they tested it, another group of mice on Rapamycin and Metformin. These are known already to
work on mice and
extend
their lifespans. They took 19-month-old mice, which is the equivalent of 58 human years, and
they had a group on
each, and the ones on these known life extension molecules compounds died off pretty fast over
the next several
months, they went to the human equivalent of 85 years. The MYMD group shows little indication of
death. Very few
mice died. I'm not going to say it's an immortality drug, but just think of the potential.
Because there's a huge inflammatory component in aging. They call it inflammaging. Years ago,
there was a
Time magazine with a cover, 'inflammaging phenomenon," how your immune system changes
as you age. It
ages,
you get this background inflammation going on, you get these autoimmune diseases, rheumatoid
arthritis. There's
a
major involvement with the development of cancer, which is why cancers are generally much more
common in older
people. I believe this molecule this company has could become a competitor in this 40 billion
market. Plus, it's
shown that it's very safe so far. And it could become a competitor and new inflammatory
indications that nobody
is
in touch. They're going into clinical trial now, phase two, in COVID 19 depression. There's a
huge TNF alpha
component there. As you know, if people have bad COVID 19, there's a runaway inflammatory
response, which is
what
kills a lot of people. It's called the cytokine storm. They're going into a clinical trial for
that.
They're going to go into clinical trials for sarcopenia. Sarcopenia is muscle wasting. When you
get older, your
muscles start to waste away. There's a big TNF alpha component in that, and you get frail. Older
people are
frail.
In this mouse study that I just told you about, I know it sounds hilarious, but they did a grip
test on the mice
and
the ones on MYMD retained their grip strength, which means they retained muscle mass, which
means there's an
application for sarcopenia in older people. I could talk about it for a while, but I'll be
writing a lot about
it in
Catalyst Trader.
Addison:
Can we go back to the cytokine storm?
Ray:
Yeah.
Addison:
In one of our conversations about the COVID virus, you went in depth about how it causes
inflammation in your
major organs, and then it all kicks in at once, and then the body starts attacking itself, and
that's what
causes the inflammation. This MYMD has shown, at least in mice, that it can head off the
inflammation that is
the result of a cytokine storm.
Ray:
Right.
Addison:
After you tested it with mice, what happens next? Where does it go from there? It starts
human trials,
right?
Ray:
They're talking about launching phase twos here in the fourth quarter. Now, I know they've run phase
one and data
hasn't been released. What normally happens is you get to phase one data before you go to phase two.
Addison:
He wants a quicker phase two.
Ray:
The phase one trial was in healthy volunteers and they did different dose levels. So if we get a
phase one result,
and obviously, they think the data was probably pretty good or they wouldn't be launching a phase
two or talking
about it, so I expect when phase one comes out, you're going to see some good data. You're going to
see knockdowns
on TNF alpha levels. And the most beautiful thing to see would be dose dependent knockdown. That
would be really
nice to see. The nice thing about this drug is it works upstream of TNF alpha, and doesn't block it
directly. So the
adaptive inflammatory response of things like infection or mutant cancerous cells is not affected
like it is with
Humira, so it's potentially a much safer drug. Like I said, it crosses the blood brain barrier, so
there are a lot
of indications there. There's a lot of evidence that Alzheimer's is an immunometabolic condition.
It's not the
plaques in your brain that are killing you, it's something else. It's an inflammatory reaction in
your brain. They
haven't talked about that, and I'm just speculating, but I'm very excited about what this drug could
do.
Addison:
And right now, we can get in the stock?
Ray:
Get in? Yes. It's in our portfolio.
Addison:
Catalyst Trader.
Ray:
In Catalyst Trader.
Addison:
All right, Ray, it's always good to talk to you. I feel like I learn at least enough to make
myself dangerous
every time I talk to you.
Ray:
All right.
Addison:
All right, looking forward to talking to you again in your next issue of Catalyst
Trader.
Ray:
Thank you. Talk to you soon, Addison.
Addison:
All right. Thanks.
Ray:
Bye-bye.